Research

Revenue-Based Repurchase Mechanism With No Exit Required

John Cowan — Fri, 13 Mar 2026 18:41:55 GMT

Next Wave Partners has launched two Safer-financed venture clusters, now open for co-investment: Intelligent Infrastructure and Climate Infrastructure. Revenue-based repurchase payments may begin after the honeymoon period if the company generates sufficient revenue. Applications open to accredited investors under Rule 506(c).

The Future of Venture Capital: Rethinking Startup Fundraising in 2026

John Cowan — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 04:00:00 GMT

Executive Summary

This whitepaper argues that early-stage fundraising in 2026 is no longer a cyclical “tight market” but a structural breakdown of the staged venture model. Mega-fund concentration has hollowed out true early-stage capital; Seed→A progression has collapsed; bridges and down rounds dominate; and LP distributions remain weak. The result is a two-tier system: Venture Banks optimizing for AUM and paper markups at the top, while the vast majority of startups face dilution, stalled momentum, or shutdowns. Founders who treat the classic Seed–A–B–exit ladder as a neutral pathway are misreading the incentives: the model now systematically prices speed and narrative over fundamentals, transfers control from creators to intermediaries, and imposes a 24-month “Series A death clock” that harms company building, especially in capital-intensive or longer-cycle sectors.

JPMorgan's $1.5 Trillion Plan and the Financial-Industrial State

John Cowan — Tue, 21 Oct 2025 04:00:00 GMT

America quietly shifted from building public assets to backstopping private balance sheets. JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion initiative is the latest proof. If taxpayers underwrite the foundation, they should share in ownership of what gets built.

Trump's $100k H1B visa: big tech wins, startups lose

James Thomason — Sat, 20 Sep 2025 04:00:00 GMT

The presidential proclamation instituting a $100,000 fee for new H1B visa petitions represents a structural break in U.S. high-skilled immigration policy. This analysis concludes that the policy will effectively dismantle the H1B program in its current form, triggering significant negative consequences for U.S. economic growth, innovation, and global competitiveness.

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Long Arc of AI Innovation

John Cowan — Fri, 19 Sep 2025 04:00:00 GMT

Current AI faces fundamental limits in energy, latency, and real-world robustness. Four paradigm shifts are emerging, and the companies that synthesize them will capture disproportionate value in the autonomous systems market.

RobinHood unveils plan to break Wall Street's IPO cartel

James Thomason — Mon, 30 Jun 2025 04:00:00 GMT

While crypto exchanges chase profits from meme coins and speculative tokens, Robinhood is weaponizing blockchain technology against the financial establishment. The real target isn't retail investors' wallets this time. It's the $50B+ IPO industry that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan have controlled for decades.

The Fall of Venture Capital: Why the $40B OpenAI Deal and AI Overconcentration Signals Systemic Collapse

John Cowan — Fri, 18 Apr 2025 04:00:00 GMT

In Q1 2025, artificial intelligence startups captured a staggering 57.9% of global venture capital funding, marking the most concentrated investment cycle in startup history. At the center of this allocation was the $40 billion OpenAI funding round—a single transaction that not only distorted quarterly capital flows but also revealed the structural fragility of the current venture model. Far from being a sign of progress, this overconcentration signals the collapse of venture capital as a diversified innovation strategy. This report compares the AI bubble to the cloud computing boom of the 2010s, quantifies the opportunity cost of narrative-driven investing, and outlines why the industry now faces a systemic venture capital reset—one that LPs, founders, and allocators can no longer ignore.

“This isn’t just a bubble. It’s a structural failure of capital allocation at the system level.”

The People’s Portfolio: Investing in Intelligent Infrastructure

John Cowan — Tue, 25 Mar 2025 04:00:00 GMT

In January, Hamilton Lane and Republic launched a bold experiment: a private infrastructure fund open to retail investors. With a minimum investment of just $500, the Hamilton Lane Private Infrastructure Fund (HLPIF) promised to democratize access to one of the most exclusive corners of the capital markets—real assets like energy systems, data infrastructure, and transportation networks.

GDP shock: Venture Capital's government bailout begins

James Thomason — Thu, 06 Mar 2025 05:00:00 GMT

The Trump administration's trade war has created widespread economic disruption and the economic indicators for Q1 2025 read like a coroner's report. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model projects a -2.8% contraction, deteriorating from -1.5% mere days earlier. Consumer spending growth has flatlined at 0.0%, while private investment growth has cratered from 3.5% to a bare 0.1%. Combined with rising prices across all industries, we now face textbook stagflation.

2025 Annual Letter

John Cowan — Thu, 16 Jan 2025 05:00:00 GMT

To those building beyond the status quo, our friends and supporters:

We founded Next Wave Partners three years ago because we could no longer play along with venture capital's collective delusion. While the evidence of the industry's failure mounted—in disillusioned founders, frustrated investors, and missed opportunities—the celebration of mediocrity only grew louder. We believed then, as we do now, that venture capital needs more than gentle reform. It needs a complete reinvention.

Our first annual letter marks an important milestone on our long journey to build a new model. It's an opportunity to share not just our progress but our deepening conviction that the future of venture capital will look radically different from its past. What follows is a diagnosis of where venture capital has lost its way and a detailed blueprint for how we're working to set it right.